Assessment of the Effects of Fiscal Policy on Economic Growth in Saudi Arabia
الكلمات المفتاحية:
Fiscal Policy, Economic Growth, Saudi Arabia, ARDL model
الملخص
This study provides empirical analysis of the impact of fiscal policy on economic growth in Saudi Arabia. The study analysing time series data from 1980 to 2023. Augmented Dickey-Fuller and Philips perron unit root test was employed to establish the stationarity of the variables while the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model was used for testing for the existence of long-run and short-run equilibrium conditions. The findings suggested a co-integration between the dependent and independent variables as well as a long-term relationship between the variables in Saudi Arabia during the period studied. The estimation results reveal that adjusted R2 value of 0.8854 showed that about 89.5% of the total variation in the real GDP is explained by the independent variables included in the model. Specific fiscal policy variables that have significant and positive impact on economic growth in Saudi Arabia are government expenditure, terms of trade index, and real effective exchange and debt. In addition, the results of the study indicated that tax revenue, has a negative and significant impact on real GDP in Saudi Arabia during the period under review. Therefore, this study clearly suggests raising government expenditure must be a key part of any strategy to increase growth and trade reform has been strongly growth enhancing in S Saudi Arabian economy. while avoiding tax structures targeted explicitly at the country's low real GDP.
المراجع
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66- Rexha, Bexheti & Ukshini (2021). Impact of The Fiscal Policy on Economic Growth: An Analytical Approach from the Republic of Kosovo. International Journal of Public Sector Performance Management, 7(4), 534-547.
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2- Abdelkawy, A,.N and AlShammre, A,.S (2024) Fiscal Policy and Economic Resilience: The Impact of Government Consumption Alongside Oil and Non-Oil Revenues on Saudi Arabia’s GDP during Crises (1969–2022 Sustainability 2024, 16, 6267. https://doi.org/10.3390/ su16146267
3- Agosin, M. R. & R. Mayer (2000), “Foreign Investment in Developing Countries”, Discussion Papers, No. 146.
4- Ahmad, K. (2018). Addressing Demographic Challenges: Strategies for Sustainable Economic Growth in Pakistan. Journal of Business and Economic Options, 1(4), 120-130.
5- Akbaş, Y. E., Lebe, F., & Zeren, F. (2014). Testing the Validity of the Triplet Deficit Hypothesis for Turkey: Asymmetric Causality Analysis. Journal of Business and Economics, 7(14), 137-154.
6- Alfaro ,I, P. (2025) Double-Dip Recession: Overview and History, Investopedia, https://www.investopedia.com/
7- Alfaro,L. Chanda,.A, Kalemli-Ozcan,S,. and Sayek,S.(2003) FDI and Economic Growth: The Role of Local Financial Markets. Electronic Journal 64(1):89-112
8- Al_kasasbeh, O., Alzghoul, A., Alhanatleh, H. (2022) The Impact of Fiscal Policy and Trade Liberalization on Economic Growth: Evidence from Structural Breaks for Jordan, Intern. Journal of Profess. Bus. Review. |Miami, v. 7 | n. 6| p. 01-16 | e0850 | Doi: https://doi.org/10.26668/businessreview/2022.v7i6.850
9- AlRasasi, M.; Qualls, J.; Alghamdi, B. (2019) Oil revenues and economic growth in Saudi Arabia. International Journal Economics and Finance Research, 5, 49–55]
10- Alesina A. Passalacqua.A. and Perotti R (1996) Income distribution. political instability, and investment. Review Volume, June 1996, Pages 1203-1228
11- AL-Jebory A, S.2016) (Effectiveness of Fiscal Policy Proxies on Economic Growth In IRAQ 1980-2015, International Journal of Business and General Management (IJBGM) ISSN(P): 2319-2267; ISSN(E): 2319-2275 Vol. 5, Issue 6, Oct - Nov 2016; 31-40
12- Ajayi, E. O., & Araoye, F. E. (2019). Trade openness and economic growth in Nigeria. International Journal of Economics and Financial Management, 4(2), 50-63.
13- Ajibu Jonas (2024) The Nexus Between Government Spending and Economic Growth in Saudi Arabia Cognizance. Journal of Multidisciplinary Studies (CJMS) https://doi.org/10.47760/cognizance.2024.v04i02.025
14- Aitken, B., G. H. Hanson, & A. E. Harrison (1997). Spillovers, foreign investment, and export behaviour. Journal of International Economics, 43(1-2), 103–132.
15- Annual Report (2021), International Data MAP. Arabian canter.
16- Ajibu Jonas (2024) The Nexus Between Government Spending and Economic Growth in Saudi Arabia Cognizance. Journal of Multidisciplinary Studies (CJMS) https://doi.org/10.47760/cognizance.2024.v04i02.025
17- Arjang, A. Khuan, H. Badrudin, R., Judijanto, L,. and Kalsum, U and Manullang, R,.(2025), Impact of Fiscal Policy on Economic Growth in Developing Countries, Nomico Journal, Vol. 1 No. 12 DOI: https://doi.org/10.62872/xkaaxh89
18- Arawatari, R. Takeo Hori, T and Kazuo Mino, K. (2023) Government expenditure and economic growth: A heterogeneous-agents approach. Journal of Macroeconomics Volume 75
19- Ashraf Galal Eid (2015) Budgetary Institutions Fiscal Policy and Economic Growth: The Case of Saudi Arabia Working Paper 967 The Economic Research Forum (ERF) 21 www.erf.org.eg
20- Bagnai, A., & Mazzochis. (1999). Current-Account Reversals in Developing Countries: The Role of Fundamentals. Open Economies Review, 10(2), pp. 143-163.
21- Barro RJ (1990) Government spending in a simple model of endogenous growth. Journal of Polit Econ 98:103–125
22- Benigno, G., Converse, N. and Fornaro, L. (2015), “Large capital inflows, sectoral allocation, and economic performance”. Journal of International Money and Finance, Vol. 55, pp. 60-87.
23- Brons, M., Henri L.F. de Groot and Peter Nijkamp (1999) Growth Effects of Fiscal Policies A Comparative Analysis in a Multi-Country. Context Dept. of Spatial Economics Vrije Universiteit De Boelelaan 1105 1081 HV Amsterdam The Netherlands
24- . Burgess, J.C & Barbier, E.B (2001) Sustainable Development. International Encyclopedia of the Social & Behavioral Sciences, Pages 15329-15335 https://doi.org/10.1016/B0-08-043076-7/04164-4
25- Chu T. T., Hölscher J., McCarthy D. (2020). The impact of productive and non-productive government expenditure on economic growth: An empirical analysis in high-income versus low- to middle-income economies. Empirical Economics, 58, 2403–2430. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00181-018-1616-3.
26- Clark, Laura (4 January 2013). "Longform's Picks of the Week [Will Saudi Arabia Ever Change?]". Foreign Policy.
27- Clements, M. B. J., De Mooij, R. A., Gupta, M. S., and Keen, M. M. (2015). Inequality and fiscal policy. International Monetary Fund.
28- Cordesman, Anthony H. (2003). Saudi Arabia Enters the Twenty-First Century, . Greenwood. p. 244.volume1
29- DaoudI, M (2023) The Impact of Fiscal Policy on Economic Growth in Algeria Empirical Study using VAR. Cahiers du Cread -Vol. 39 - n° 02 – 2023 https://dx.doi.org/10.4314/cread.v39i2.2
30- Di Nino, V,. Eichengreen , B,. Massimo Sbracia,.M.(2011) Real Exchange Rates, Trade, and Growth: Italy 1861-2011 Electronic Journal10.2139/
31- Fuad Kreishan (2023) Dynamic Relationships between Non-Oil Revenue, Government Spending and Economic Growth: Evidence from Bahrain, Montenegrin journal of economics https://doi.org/10.
32- Gale, William, and Andrew Samwick. (2014). “Effects of Income Tax Changes in Economic Growth.” Washington, DC: Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center.
33- Gujarati, D.N. (2004) Basic Econometrics. 4th Edition, McGraw-Hill Companies.
34- Hasanov F. J., Alkathiri N., Alshahrani S. A., Alyamani R. (2022). The impact of fiscal policy on non-oil GDP in Saudi Arabia. Applied Economics, 54(7), 793–806. https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2021.1966370
35- Hepaktan, C. E., & Cinar, S. (2012). Economic Growth-Current Account Balance Relationship in OECD Countries: Analysis of Panel Data. Journal of Social Sciences, 12(1), 43-58.
36- Harman Singh (2022) Economic Growth in Saudi Arabia through Sectoral Reallocation of Government Expenditures. https://doi.org/10
37- Iqbala, Q & Nader, M. (2024) Fiscal Policy and Economic Growth in Saudi Arabia: A Study of Government Expenditures and Their Macroeconomic Effects, Journal of business and economic option JBEO (2024), 7(3), 35-42.
38- IMF, Saudi Arabia: 2014 Staff Report for the 2014 Article IV Consultation.
39- IMF, Saudi Arabia: 2016 Article IV Consultation; IMF Data Mapper, “Government Primary Balance, Percent of GDP.”
40- International Monetary Fund, IMF (2019) https://data.imf.org. Accessed 5 June
41- Jonas, A (2024) The Nexus Between Government Spending and Economic Growth in Saudi Arabia. Cognizance Journal of Multidisciplinary Studies (CJMS) https://doi.org/10.47760/cognizance.2024.v04i02.025
42- Karima, H, Zegrier A, &, Belkhir N (2024) Factors Influencing Economic Growth in Algeria: Analysis of the Impact of Private Sector Credit, Government Spending, and Trade Openness Using the ARDL Model. Journal of Quantitative Economics Studies Volume 10, Number 0), PP345-361 2024-07-01
43- Keho, Y. (2017). The impact of trade openness on economic growth: The case of Cote d'Ivoire. Cogent Economics & Finance, 5(1), 1-14. Available at http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/23322039.2017.1332820
44- Krugman 1998, "Fire sale FDI," Working Paper, Massachusetts Institute of Technology. This paper is also available on the web at http://web.mit.edu/krugman/www/FIRESALE.htm.
45- Kutasi G., Marton Á. (2020). The long-term impact of public expenditures on GDP-growth. Society and Economy, 42, 403–419. https://doi.org/10.
46- Kotlán, I Zuzana Machova.,Z &Lenka Janíčková (2011) Taxation influence on the economic growth, Politická ekonomie 2011(5):638-658
47- Khanal, S. and Nepal, P,.(2024) Effects of Fiscal Policy on Economic Growth in Nepal, Nepal journal on line, https://doi.org/10.3126/pp.v12i1.69973
48- Khaled Al-Tamimi) 2020 )Government Spending as a Tool for Economic Growth in the Economy of Jordan
49- Keynes, J,. M (1936). General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money.
50- Levine,. R & Renelt,. D (1992) A Sensitivity Analysis of Cross-Country Growth Regressions, The American Economic Review, Vol. 82, No. 4 (Sep., 1992), pp. 942-963 (22 pages)
51- Modibbo, H., & Inuwa, N. (2020). Health Outcomes and Economic Growth Nexus: Evidence from Nigeria. Journal of Business and Economic Options, 3(2), 46-55.52.
52- Macek, R. (2014). The Impact of Taxation on Economic Growth: Case study of OECD Countries. Review of Economic Perspectives, 14(4), 309 – 328.
53- Mabro, R. (May 2009). "The Oil Price Crises of 1998–9 and 2008–9". Oxford Institute for Energy Studies. (50)
54- Mashilana, N. and Hlalefang, K (2018) The impact of exchange rate on exports in South Africa. MPRA 17:02
55- Mas Andini (2024) The Influence of Fiscal Policy on Economic Growth ORGANIZE Journal of Economics, Management and Finance Journal website: Vol. 3 No. 1 (2024) pp. 1-9 https://organize.pdfaii.org/
56- McLeod, D. and E. Mileva (2011): "Real Exchange Rates and Growth Surges" Fordham Economics Discussion Paper Series, dp2011-04.
57- Moyo, C., & Khobai, H. (2018). Trade openness and economic growth in SADC countries. MPRA Paper No. 84254
58- Musgrave, Richard. 1959. Theory of Fiscal Policy. New York: McGraw Hill.
59- Muye,. I,.M,. Kaita,. R,. A, &Hassan, A.F,.F (2017) Debt and Economic Growth in an Oil Rich Economy: Evidence from Saudi Arabia, International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues 7(4):70-75
60- Ndubuisi, P. (2017). Analysis of the Impact of External Debt on Economic Growth in an Emerging Economy: Evidence from Nigeria. African Research Review, 11(4), 156-173.
61- Nhemhafuki, S. (2023) Expenditure and Economic Growth: A Cross-Country Analysis. Journal of Economics Students, Vol. 1, 2023, (Issue No. 1).
62- Onifade, S.T., Çevik, S., Erdoğan, S. An empirical retrospect of the impacts of government expenditures on economic growth: new evidence from the Nigerian economy. Economic Structures 9, 6 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1186/s40008-020-0186-7
63- Pesaran, M.H. (1997). The Role of Economic Theory in Modelling the Long Run. The Economic Journal, 107 (4), 178 191.
64- Pesaran, M. H. & Shin, Y. (1999). An Autoregressive Distributed Lag Modelling Approach to Cointegration Analysis, in S. Strom, (ed) Econometrics and Economic Theory in the 20th Century: The Ragnar Frisch Centennial Symposium, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
65- Rahman,. A. Prava Nath,. S,. P,. Siddqu ,. A,. B & Shaon,. S. H (2023) The Impact of Government Expenditure on Economic Growth: A Study of SAARC Countries. Open Journal of Business and Management 11(04):1691-
66- Rexha, Bexheti & Ukshini (2021). Impact of The Fiscal Policy on Economic Growth: An Analytical Approach from the Republic of Kosovo. International Journal of Public Sector Performance Management, 7(4), 534-547.
67- Sanni, G. K., Musa, A. U. and Sani, Z (2019) Current Account Balance and Economic Growth in Nigeria: An Empirical Investigation Central Bank of Nigeria Economic and Financial Review Volume 57/2 June 2019 83
68- Sanni Al_kasasbeh, O., Alzghoul, A., Alhanatleh, H. (2022) The Impact of Fiscal Policy and Trade Liberalization on Economic Growth.
69- Shaheen, R. (2019) Impact of fiscal policy on consumption and labor supply under a time-varying structural VAR model. Economies 2019, 7, 57.
70- Sadashiv, K. R. (2023). Foreign Direct Investment Dynamics and Economic Growth in the Case of India. Journal of Business and Economic Options, 6(1)
71- Saltz, I. S. (1992), “The Negative Correlation between Foreign Direct Investment and Economic Growth in the Third World: Theory and Evidence”, Rivista Internationale Di Scienz Economiche e Commerciale, 19(7), 617-633.
72- Saudi Ministry of Finance (2024) mof.gov.sa
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منشور
2025-06-11
كيفية الاقتباس
Ahlam Abdelhadi Hassan Elamin. (2025). Assessment of the Effects of Fiscal Policy on Economic Growth in Saudi Arabia. International Journal on Humanities and Social Sciences, (66), 227-255. https://doi.org/10.33193/IJoHSS.66.2025.835
إصدار
القسم
المقالات
الحقوق الفكرية (c) 2025 Ahlam Abdelhadi Hassan Elamin
هذا العمل مرخص حسب الرخصة Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.
