Using Regression Models to Determine the most Important Factors affecting the import of wheat in Sudan during the period 1985-2021

Abstract

The wheat crop is considered one of the most important crops for food security in Sudan. Therefore, the study dealt with the most important factors affecting its import to assist the competent authorities in the production and import of wheat in developing plans and programs that achieve maximum benefit from production, rationalization of import and the planning process for the future. The study aimed to build mathematical models that enable predicting the quantities of wheat imported into Sudan in the coming years, identifying the most important factors affecting the quantities of wheat imports in Sudan during the period (1985-2021 AD), the study used the descriptive analytical approach and relied on secondary data collected from a bank Central Sudan and the Ministry of Trade and Industry during the period (1985-2021 AD), and it was analyzed using linear and nonlinear regression models. The study reached a number of results, the most important of which are: that the multiple linear regression model is better than the logarithmic and semi-logarithmic regression models, depending on the indicators of the coefficient of determination and the significance of the model and its absence from standard problems. There is positive relationship between the volume of wheat imports, wheat consumption, and average per capita income and is an inverse relationship between imports of wheat and local production of wheat. The study also concluded with a number of recommendations, the most important of which are: The authorities concerned with importing wheat in Sudan should use the model that was reached in predicting the value of total imports in Sudan in the future, and the need to build import plans for wheat based on the means Accurate scientific leads to realism and accuracy of plans.